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Current Severe Weather Discussion Issued by the Storm Prediction Center
SPC AC 120041
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0741 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025
Valid 120100Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
EASTER GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHWEST...AND ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA
OUTER BANKS REGION...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening across
the eastern Great Basin and Southwest. A brief tornado and
occasional strong to severe gusts could occur over the Outer Banks
of North Carolina late tonight and early Sunday morning.
...01z Update...
Strong progressive upper trough is advancing steadily across the
northern Intermountain region and Great Basin early this evening.
Strong midlevel height falls and high-level diffluent flow continue
to favor scattered convection along the frontal zone as it shifts
east this evening. 00z sounding from SLC exhibited relatively steep
lapse rates through 5km with MLCAPE around 700 J/kg. Nocturnal
cooling should weaken boundary-layer lapse rates over the next few
hours which should lead to overall weakening of ongoing activity.
Farther south across southeast AZ, fairly high PW values are noted
along the U.S. side of the international border with 1.66 PW
observed at TUS. Deep-layer flow is also modestly strong which will
continue to support at least isolated severe within an air mass
characterized by MLCAPE around 1100 J/kg. This activity should
spread toward southwest NM where cooler temperatures and weaker
buoyancy will lead to weaker updrafts.
Boundary layer moisture is gradually increasing along the Outer
Banks of NC early this evening where latest observational data
suggests lower 70s are noted. As moisture/instability advance inland
the prospect for deeper updrafts/lightning will increase, especially
after midnight. Some risk for severe gusts and perhaps a brief
tornado can be expected.
..Darrow.. 10/12/2025
CLICK TO GET <a href="/products/outlook/archive/2025/KWNSPTSDY1_202510120100.txt">WUUS01 PTSDY1</a> PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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Current Excessive Rainfall Discussion Issued by the Weather Prediction Center
Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 839 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025 Day 1 Valid 01Z Sun Oct 12 2025 - 12Z Sun Oct 12 2025 ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE FOUR CORNERS STATES AS WELL AS FOR PORTIONS OF COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA... 18Z Update...Only a few minor changes were made to the outlook areas, based on the latest observational and mesoanalysis trends, along with the latest HREF and RRFS QPF exceedance probabilities. Hurley 0830Z Excessive Rainfall Discussion... ...Southwest to the Northern Rockies and High Plains... An amplified upper trough will move east from the West Coast to the Rockies. Deep southwesterly flow ahead of the trough will continue to transport tropical moisture and energy north from the Southwest/Four Corners Region early in the period. The GFS is showing PW anomalies of 4-5 std dev above normal from the Southwest into the central Rockies this morning, with anomalies increasing further to the north into the northern Rockies/High Plains as the trough continues to shift east later today. Moisture and energy associated with the remnants of Tropical Cyclone Priscilla will continue to lift north from the Southwest/Four Corners region, but residual moisture left in its wake will maintain significant anomalies from the Southwest up through Four Corners before a front associated with the upper trough brings in drier air through the Four Corners by tonight. However, PW anomalies are expected to remain notably high across southeastern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico, where moisture moving out ahead of Tropical Cyclone Raymond is expected to spread into the region. Overall, not much change to the previous outlook areas, with a Slight Risk extending from the Southwest through the Four Corners into the central Rockies, where moisture and energy associated with Priscilla are expected to support widespread precipitation, producing locally heavy amounts early in the period. Both the HREF and RRFS show high probabilities for accumulations exceeding an inch covering much of the western Colorado ranges, with high neighborhood probabilities for amounts exceeding 2 inches centered over the San Juans. Further to the south, hi-res guidance show showers and storms firing later today, with repeating development across portions of southern Arizona and New Mexico. Both the HREF and RRFS show high probabilities for amounts over 2 inches centered along the Mogollon Rim into southeastern Arizona and portions of southwestern New Mexico. Lastly, across the northern Rockies and High Plains, strong ascent afforded in part by favorable upper jet forcing, interacting with the previously noted anomalous moisture plume spreading north, may be sufficient to produce some locally heavy amounts, with isolated runoff concerns from eastern Idaho and western Wyoming into parts of southwestern and central Montana today. ...Coastal Carolinas and Southeastern Virginia... An area of low pressure now organizing east of Florida will continue to deepen and track north this morning, before slowing as it reaches the Carolina coast later today. Strong easterly winds north of the center will draw deep moisture inland, with heavy rain likely to impact coastal North Carolina this evening into the overnight before reaching into southeastern Virginia during the overnight as well. Models continue to show the potential for several inches along the North Carolina coast, but with a tight gradient further inland. Maintained a Slight Risk across coastal North Carolina into southeastern Virginia, where in addition to heavy rain, coastal flooding generated by the strong onshore winds is likely to compound runoff concerns. Pereira Day 1 threat area: <a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt"<u>www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt</u></a>
Tomorrow's Severe Weather Discussion Issued by the Storm Prediction Center
SPC AC 111652
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1152 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe-storm risk appears negligible on Sunday into Sunday night.
...East...
A surface cyclone near the coastal Carolinas at 12Z Sunday should
gradually fill as it drifts north, offshore of the Lower
Mid-Atlantic. Convection should primarily segregate into two
corridors of weak elevated activity. One near the quasi-stationary
mid-level low centered in eastern SC and the other in the offshore
low-level warm conveyor that will sustain weakening convection
approaching the Mid-Atlantic to southern New England coast. Largely
poor lapse rates will limit instability/MUCAPE and thunder coverage.
...Northern Plains and Upper Midwest...
Isolated elevated thunderstorms are possible Sunday morning ahead of
the shortwave trough impinging on the northwest ND/far northeast MT
vicinity. Isolated elevated storms are also possible across parts of
the Upper Midwest within the downstream low-level warm conveyor on
Sunday. This will be characterized by weak MUCAPE/mid-level lapse
rates with convection subsiding by Sunday night.
...Southwest...
Scattered afternoon thunderstorms are most probable across southern
AZ into southwest NM. Weak lapse rates above a relatively shallow
mixed boundary layer will limit convective vigor. Isolated elevated
thunderstorms are also possible Sunday night into early morning
Monday both northward to the Four Corners and eastward in the
Southern Plains.
...Pacific Northwest...
A shortwave trough digging south along the Pacific Northwest coast
will aid in sufficient forcing for ascent and steepening of
mid-level lapse rates for an isolated thunderstorm risk on Sunday
afternoon through Sunday night.
..Grams.. 10/11/2025
CLICK TO GET <a href="/products/outlook/archive/2025/KWNSPTSDY2_202510111730.txt">WUUS02 PTSDY2</a> PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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Copyright 2025 Chris Rhodes Storm Photographer
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