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Current Severe Weather Discussion Issued by the Storm Prediction Center
SPC AC 211937
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0237 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026
Valid 212000Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO THE CAROLINAS...
CORRECTED FOR GEOGRAPHIC AREA HEADLINE
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce marginally
severe hail and damaging winds this afternoon and evening from the
southern Appalachians into the Carolinas.
...20Z Update...
The previous forecast (see below), remains on track. Please see
Mesoscale Discussion 283 for short-term information on the severe
threat across portions of the southern Appalachians.
..Squitieri.. 03/21/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026/
...Southern Appalachians into the Carolinas...
Recent satellite imagery shows a somewhat subtle and broad shortwave
trough progressing southeastward through the MS Valley, along the
far northeast periphery of the upper ridging covering much of the
Southwest and southern Plains. Limited low-level moisture precedes
this wave, with recent surface analysis sampling dewpoints ranging
from the upper 50s across much of AL to the mid 40s across much of
the Carolinas. Modest low-level moisture advection is anticipated
today ahead of this wave. However, this advection will be countered
by diurnal mixing, and the general expectation is for dewpoints to
be in the upper 40s/low 50s from eastern TN into the Carolinas as
the wave moves in the area this afternoon. Even with this limited
low-level moisture, cool mid-level temperatures and associated steep
mid-level lapse rates will support weak buoyancy and the potential
for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and
early evening.
Large-scale ascent will be modest, supporting an initially more
cellular, loosely organized storm mode. This region will be on the
southern periphery of the stronger mid-level flow, likely resulting
in sufficient shear for organization within any deeper, more
persistent updrafts. As such, updrafts are expected to gradually
intensify as they move into the western and central Carolinas.
Marginally severe hail is possible with the strongest cores. A trend
towards a more linear/line segment mode is expected with time, and
persistent steep low-level lapse rates may support occasional strong
to damaging downdraft winds as well. The onset of nocturnal
boundary-layer stabilization should result in a decreasing severe
threat as the storms move into the coastal Carolinas.
CLICK TO GET <a href="archive/2026/KWNSPTSDY1_202603212000.txt">WUUS01 PTSDY1</a> PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
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Current Excessive Rainfall Discussion Issued by the Weather Prediction Center
Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 239 PM EDT Sat Mar 21 2026 Day 1 Valid 16Z Sat Mar 21 2026 - 12Z Sun Mar 22 2026 The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less than 5 percent. Orrison Day 1 threat area: <a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt"<u>www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt</u></a>
Tomorrow's Severe Weather Discussion Issued by the Storm Prediction Center
SPC AC 211723
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1223 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with large hail, damaging
wind gusts, and possibly some tornado threat are expected on Sunday
afternoon and evening across parts of the Ohio Valley into the
northern Mid Atlantic region.
...Synopsis...
A mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to gradually amplify
on Sunday, as it moves from the northern Plains towards the Great
Lakes region. This amplification will occur within a broader
west-northwesterly flow regime, with relatively strong deep-layer
flow expected to eventually overspread the Ohio Valley and Mid
Atlantic regions. A cold front initially draped from the central
Plains into the Lower Great Lakes will move generally southeastward
through the period, as one or more frontal waves traverse the front
from the mid MS Valley into the Northeast and Mid Atlantic.
...Ohio Valley into parts of the Mid Atlantic...
A plume of relatively steep midlevel lapse rates will emanate out of
an anomalously hot and well-mixed regime across the Southwest and
central/southern Plains and overspread parts of the Ohio Valley on
Sunday. With favorable deep-layer flow/shear expected across the
Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic, the primary uncertainty regarding the
magnitude of buoyancy and potential severe threat is low-level
moisture return. The partially modified nature of returning Gulf
moisture and a tendency for strong antecedent heating/mixing
upstream of the Ohio Valley may continue to result in less
aggressive moistening compared to most guidance. However, with
relatively cool midlevel temperatures (-14C to -16C at 500 mb), even
dewpoints in the low/mid 50s F will result in moderate buoyancy
(MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg) where sufficient heating occurs.
The greatest confidence in diurnal storm development currently
resides within the eastern portion of the primary buoyancy plume
across PA and eastern OH, where weaker capping and a modest
warm-advection regime could result in isolated to widely scattered
supercell development along/ahead of the front. Weaker ascent with
southwest extent reduces confidence in development across the lower
Ohio Valley, though isolated supercell development cannot be ruled
out in this region as well. An increase in storm coverage is
expected into Sunday night as the cold front begins to surge
southeastward, though much of the nocturnal activity may tend to be
anafrontal and somewhat elevated.
Large hail (potentially to the size of golf balls or larger) could
accompany any longer-lived supercells during the afternoon and
evening. The environment will also be favorable for damaging-wind
potential, especially where stronger diurnal heating occurs, though
potential for organized clustering is uncertain due to the eventual
undercutting frontal passage. Also, while flow will remain rather
veered, low-level shear/SRH may be sufficient to support some
supercell tornado threat, conditional upon sufficient low-level
moistening. A corridor of greater tornado probabilities may
eventually be needed, if trends support more substantial moisture
return than currently expected.
..Dean.. 03/21/2026
CLICK TO GET <a href="archive/2026/KWNSPTSDY2_202603211730.txt">WUUS02 PTSDY2</a> PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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Copyright 2026 Chris Rhodes Storm Photographer
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